Highlights
At a Glance
Goal 16: Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels
Aspiration 3: Aspires towards a “An Africa of good governance, democracy, respect for human rights, justice and the rule of law”
Aspiration 4: Aspires towards a “peaceful and secure Africa.”
The Africa Union’s Agenda 2063 makes it clear that climate-resilient communities and economies are an integral component of the continental vision for an integrated, prosperous and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens, representing a dynamic force in the international arena. Goal:To provide a continental framework for collective action and enhanced cooperation in addressing climate change issues that improves livelihoods and well-being, promotes adaptation capacity, and achieves low-emission, sustainable economic growth. Overall objectives: Building the resilience of African communities, ecosystems and economies, and supporting regional adaptation. AU Response: The AU PSC and Heads of State and Government decisions led to the conduct of the climate security risk assessment study and the Report of the Chairperson of the AUC on the Study on the nexus between Climate Change, Peace and Security.
PAPS Commissioner: Amb. Bankole Adeoye, Nigeria (elected in February 2021) Governance and Conflict Prevention - Director: Patience Zanelie Chiradza, Zimbabwe CMD - Director: Dr. Sarjoh Bah @AUC_PAPS Hashtags: #ClimateChangeAfrica #ACRA #COP21
climate change was a ‘threat multiplier that we should collectively address. … We remain resolute to contributing to the Common African Position on climate change peace and security in close collaboration with relevant actors’ Amb. Bankole
About
Climate-related security risks are increasing across the African continent, in particular around natural resource competition, access to food, water and energy, migration and displacement, and armed groups. Climate change exacerbates existing security risks and threats through stressors which negatively impact peace and security in Africa. Droughts, floods, storms and sea level rise cause disasters, migration and forced displacement leading to humanitarian crises and conflicts. As a result, food, water and energy insecurity have intensified on the continent, with increased competition over natural resources, loss of livelihoods, cross-border disputes and transnational organized crimes. At the same time, insecurity and conflict are further driving environmental degradation and hindering climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts.
- Climate change is a pressing developmental issue worldwide.
- IPCC concluded that the global temperature has warmed by 1.1oC since 1990.
- Historical warming is on course to reach or exceed 1.5OC unless there is a deep cut in global emissions.
- The Paris Agreement outlines the broad policy tools for framing the collective efforts to maintain the global temperature well below 2oC
- Africa accounts for ~4% of global greenhouse emissions.
- Africa is the worst affected by climate change due to a lack of adaptation capacity, high vulnerability and instability.
- Climate Climate change has become widely recognised as a global security concern with a significant focus on Africa.
- The threat multiplier effect in conflict-affected regions “fragile states”.
- Climate Security aligns with global security concerns and integration of climate issues into existing security and defence.
- Climate change acts as both a catalyst and an opportunity for such a rethink
- Integrating climate change adaptation and finance into a ‘peace continuum’ spanning prevention, peacebuilding and development.
It is equally reflected in the progress of continental and regional initiatives such as the African Renewable Energy Initiative, the Africa Just and Affordable Energy Transition Initiative, the African Adaptation Initiative, the Adaptation of African Agriculture Initiative and the African Women’s Climate Adaptive Priorities. Other relevant initiatives also include the Alliance for Green Infrastructure in Africa, the Great Green Wall, as well as the Climate Commissions of the Congo Basin, the Sahel and the African Island States. The diversity and scale of the negative current and anticipated impacts of climate change in Africa, and its concurrent security challenges, highlight the need for mainstreaming the climate change, peace & security nexus in Africa. The African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) indicated the importance of this mainstreaming endeavour in 2016. The PSC, once again, underscored in 2018 the importance of the AU Commission (AUC) to mainstream climate change in all its activities, particularly in early warning and prevention of climate change-related violent conflicts. In addition, a study was requested on the nexus between climate change, peace and security in the continent stressing, among other things, that the envisaged study should pay particular attention on the plight of island Member States. This issue remains of interest to the Peace and Security Council as reiterated in April 2022. Moreover, in February 2022, the Assembly, in its 35th Ordinary Session, requested the Commission to “expedite the finalization of a climate-related security risk assessment study, in consultation with Member States”. The Tangier Declaration of October 2022 also emphasized the need for the AU, the UN and their strategic partners to support “the African initiatives and strategies in order to eradicate the negative impact of climate change on peace and security in Africa”. The July 2023 Nairobi Statement on Climate Change, Peace, Security and Stability in Africa equally acknowledged that “the ever-growing adverse impacts of climate change have deleterious consequences on the sustainability of peace, security and stability across the African continent especially on fragile communities”. The collaborative efforts between the AU Departments of Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS), and Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy, and Sustainable Environment (ARBE) have resulted in a comprehensive Africa Climate Security Risk Assessment (ACRA). This study further informed the development of the Report of the Chairperson of the AU Commission on the Climate, Peace, and Security Nexus for which the preliminary drafts have been presented to the PSC in November 2023 and at COP28. The two documents together with the planned transcontinental consultations will inform the development of the Common Africa Position on the climate change, peace and security nexus. Building on the findings of the Common African Position Methodology Workshop held in Addis Ababa (May 9-11, 2024), all AUC member states, RECS/RMs and Africa Climate Commissions have been consulted. The consultation has validated, through empirical data and member state experiences, the key climate change, peace, and security risk pathways as informed by the Africa Climate Security Risk Assessment. This collaborative approach has informed the development of a whole-of-Africa informed and owned document, the Common African Position on the Climate, Peace and Security Nexus. The consultations have presented a zero draft of the Common African Position, incorporating these risk pathways, to gather further insights and ensure the final document reflects the continent's diverse realities.
Climate impacts are compounding other pressures and are changing the access and availability of natural resources. The impacts of climate change on natural resources such as land, water, and forests are manifold across the African continent. Where small arms are readily available, histories of conflict or social and ethnic cleavages exist, groups are marginalised, and natural resource management and conflict management institutions are challenged, this competition can turn into violent conflict. Food, water and energy insecurity, exacerbated by climate change, can drive a number of security relevant challenges, in particular for already vulnerable population groups. For example, the interruption in the provision of food, water and energy or their fast increases in price can feed into pre-existing grievances and act as triggers for political instability. Climate impacts are accelerating several mobility trends. By far the largest migration trend that is impacted by climate risks is migration within countries, in particular from rural areas to cities. By putting rural livelihoods under pressure, climate impacts are accelerating rural-urban migration. Climate change is also increasing the frequency and severity of weather-induced disasters, and with it, the risks of displacement. At the same time, conflict is also a major driver of displacement and displacement often goes hand in hand with several risks, in particular when it comes to the vulnerability of certain groups (women, youth, people living with disability, the elderly). Climate-related security risks are providing a fertile breeding ground for non-state armed groups such as militias, terrorist and criminal groups in Africa as they increase the pressure on state institutions. Non- state armed groups often use governance gaps to further undermine state institutions and build their own legitimacy and strength by providing cash and humanitarian aid in the aftermath of droughts, conflict resolution mechanisms and access to justice for disputes over natural resources and even building their own schools and providing education opportunities to the local population. For example, climate impacts such as droughts can drive recruitment towards illegal fishing, trafficking activities, and piracy. Furthermore, armed groups also often deepen environmental challenges: illegal resource extraction and environmental crimes such as poaching, and illegal logging and mining are often an important source of revenue for these groups. The way climate-related security risks play out on the African continent is highly dependent and influenced by several external risks and pressures. Many African countries are highly dependent on food imports and thus on the policies in food producing countries and on global markets. Food price shocks strongly affect local food security and provision which when disturbed can increase grievances and political instability. Energy price shocks have also negatively impacted many African governments that have lacked fiscal leeway to put in place wide-scale measures to counter rising energy prices. In addition, the projected emergence of climate-related border tariffs designed by some of Africa’s trade partners may have deeply negative impacts on African economies and livelihood. Indeed, Africa holds a substantive amount of the world's mineral reserves. These minerals are crucial for the green transition and include cobalt, manganese and lithium. As the demand for critical materials essential to clean energy technologies is rising, it brings risks and opportunities for Africa as Africa needs to avoid mirroring the export of other raw materials from the continent without leaving much value added and instead maximize the benefits of its rich mineral reserve for its people.
While there have been significant improvements in terms of capacities to assess and address climate- related security risks, there are still significant gaps: African research capacities are still lagging behind. From 1990–2019, climate-related research on Africa received less than 5% of global funding and more than three quarters of this funding went to EU and north American institutions and less than 15% to African institutions. This trend is also mirrored for research on climate-related security risks with most of the capacities to conduct such research being concentrated outside of the African continent. While there are regional strategies addressing climate-related security risks, similar strategies on the national level often do not exist, creating implementation gaps. A significant barrier to implementing climate security strategies is the lack of clarity regarding ownership and coordination of these topics on different levels. Some regional organisations such as IGAD and ECOWAS have dedicated structures and mechanisms, while others still have not created such institutional arrangements. This is largely mirrored on the national level where responsibilities are spread across different sectors and ministries. This fragmentation inhibits the development and execution of coherent and effective climate security policies. Governments often also lack mechanisms for effective coordination and collaboration between national and local stakeholders to ensure the integration of climate-related security risks. The financing gap for both climate action and peacebuilding and conflict prevention remains enormous. The latest IPCC report states that annual climate financing flows to the African continent are billions behind the lowest adaptation cost estimates. And of the existing commitments not enough are being dispersed: between 2014-2018 less than half of commitments were disbursed. And more than half of all the climate-related investments are concentrated in only 10 African countries. The current flow of funds for adaptation in Africa is insufficient and falls billions of dollars short of the estimated minimum cost. Meeting the targets set out for adaptation in the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in Africa would require an additional funding of 41.3 billion USD annually. The African Development Bank has stated that Africa will require $2.7 trillion by 2030 to address its climate change needs. Existing Financing is not going to those contexts and countries that are the most vulnerable to climate impacts and security risks. The Green Climate Fund (GCF) acknowledges that co- financing for Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and African states that are affected by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) experiencing medium-intensity conflict and high institutional and social fragility is comparatively lower than the co-financing leveraged in other African states. An analysis of almost 1000 projects, representing US$14.4 billion, conducted in 146 countries, including 56 fragile states, revealed that conflict and fragility might hinder access to and implementation of climate finance. Projects supported by vertical funds in extremely fragile states are much smaller than those in fragile or non- fragile states. From January 2014 to June 2021, only one extremely fragile state from Africa had access to vertical fund climate financing. A similar study on climate funding in conflict and fragile states found that as of 2020, less than a third of all GEF-funded projects were implemented in conflict-affected contexts. Furthermore, some projects in conflict-affected African countries were cancelled, dropped or increased the duration of delays because of security issues.
Africa is leading in institutional innovations and cross-sectoral cooperation to address climate-related security risksRecent years have seen a strong increase in the creation of dedicated institutions and cross-sectoral cooperation mechanisms to address climate-related security risks. Globally, Africa is an innovative leader in this area. The are major ongoing collaborative efforts between African regional organisations and the AU, the UN system, government agencies, and civil society organizations, to address the impact of climate change on peace and security in their region. Different organisations have also started to create dedicated climate-security positions and capacities: the UN Regional Working Group on Climate Change, Environment, Security and Development (UN-CCESD), the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the Office of the Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa have their own dedicated environmental and climate-security advisers. The ‘Climate Responses for Sustaining Peace’ initiative launched by the Egyptian COP27 presidency is a continental effort to facilitate African knowledge sharing and capacity building focussing on climate adaptation and peacebuilding. The African Development Bank Group's strategy for addressing fragility and building resilience 2022-2026 focuses on building resilience to various vulnerabilities, including climate change and it aims to address the root causes of conflict and fragility and emphasizes investment in crisis prevention across different fragile countries. Another interesting initiative is the Africa Climate Mobility Initiative (ACMI), a collaboration between the African Union Commission, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the International Organization for Migration (IOM), and the World Bank created in 2021 to generate political momentum and a common policy agenda on climate mobility in Africa, and to support implementation capacity and partnerships on the continent. In addition, the request at the 1163rd meeting of the PSC held at Ministerial level on 21 July 2023 to the AU Office of the Special Envoy on Women Peace and Security to integrate issues relating to Women in Development and Climate Change, in its future forums, taking into consideration the outcomes of the meeting on “the overarching challenges of climate change and the women’s agenda” organized on 16 February 2023 on the margins of the 36th Summit of the African Union, is yet another positive development. Finally, CGIAR, a consortium of international research organisations, has started to create dedicated climate security initiatives across the continent.
Early Warning and early action systems are improving, but key challenges remain to integrate the climate change, peace and security NexusEarly warning analysis to inform planning and action is a major component of addressing climate-related security risks. They are also at the heart of prevention strategies, both in terms of preparing for natural hazards but also addressing violent conflict or other threats to human security. Collection and analysis of disaggregated data on the Climate Change, Peace and Security nexus are important to address multi-dimensional vulnerabilities, but unfortunately large parts of the African continent suffer from severe shortcomings in hydro-meteorological infrastructure and services as well as multi-hazard monitoring capacities. Less than half of African countries have Early Warning and Early Action (EWEA) systems, largely due to poor access to and availability of reliable data. Those systems that exist often suffer from quality issues. Despite these challenges, several organisations and African governments have undertaken efforts to develop EWEA systems that integrate both climate and security risks across the continent. These systems focus either the local, national, regional, or continental level.
The AU has two major EWEA systems that look at the climate-conflict nexus. Firstly, the Africa Multi- Hazard Early Warning and Early Action System (AMHEWAS) programme, which is embedded in the Department for Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment department (DARBE). It aims to integrate four elements of early warning, namely risk knowledge, monitoring and warning services, risk communication and response capacity. Outputs from AMHEWAS, such as the weekly Continental Watch, focus almost exclusively on the forecast of natural hazards, such as extreme precipitation, flooding, and storms, but without drawing linkages with existing vulnerabilities regarding peace and security. Secondly, the AU Commission for Political Affairs, Peace and Security (AUC- PAPS) department has the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS), which was created as a tool for the anticipation and prevention of conflict within the broader framework of the Africa Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) by focusing on conflict drivers such as poor governance, poverty, transnational organized crimes, inequality and exclusive practices and tendencies. CEWS does not draw interlinkages between climate change, environmental issues, and conflict and insecurity trends. There have been efforts to strengthen collaboration across those two pillars by developing for instance joint outputs focusing on both climate and environmental indicators as well as peace and security data, but such initiatives have not been operationalised. Apart from these AU early warning systems, there are some other regional initiatives, most notably the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) African Multi-Hazard Advisory Centre (AMHAC), established in late 2022 in Niger, which aims to further enhance the continental capacity to generate regular continental hazards and disaster situation reports, continental climate trends and impacts as well as impact-based advisories and watches. Similar as to AMHEWAS, its role is to support national meteorological services and other stakeholders during hazard seasons, but it does not comprehensively integrate non-climatic indicators. At the national level, concrete examples for countries that have strengthened their Early Warning and Early Action Systems have shown, for example, that the early warning strategy and relocation of communities confronted to disasters prevented a significant death toll, especially when comparing to casualties in previous disasters or with some other regional countries with less developed EWEA systems. At the local level, EWEA systems are known to be most effective when integrated into community and informal networks.






