Adopted by the Peace and Security Council (PSC) of the African Union (AU) at its 1251st meeting held on 17 December 2024 on Enhancing the AU Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) and the Implementation of Early Action: Review of the Country Structural Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment (CSVRA) and Country Structural Vulnerability Mitigation Strategies (CSVMS).

The Peace and Security Council,

Recalling all its previous decisions and pronouncements on Continental Early Warning and Security Outlook, Structural prevention of Conflicts in Africa and related themes, particularly Communiqués [PSC/PR/COMM.1247(2024)] adopted at its 1247th meeting held on 27 November 2024, [PSC/PR/COMM.1233.2 (2024)] adopted at its 1233rd meeting held on 25 September 2024 and [PSC/PR/COMM.1208 (2024)] adopted at its 1208th meeting held on 16 April 2024, as well as [PSC/MIN/COMM.1163 (2023)] adopted at its 1163rd meeting of 21 July 2023 and [PSC/PR/COMM.2(DII)] adopted at its 502nd meeting held on 29 April 2015;

Faithful to all the provisions of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union, particularly Article 12 establishing the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) to facilitate the anticipation and prevention of conflicts in Africa, and reiterating unwavering commitment to supporting CEWS and the broader African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) to ensure the realisation of a peaceful and stable Continent, in line with Agenda 2063;

Determined to ensure the successful implementation of the AU Master Roadmap of Practical Steps for Silencing the Guns by 2030, focusing on addressing the structural drivers of conflict in Africa in line with the Continental Structural Conflict Prevention Framework (CSCPF);

Noting the opening remarks by H.E. Ambassador Abdi Mahamoud Eybe, the Permanent Representative of the Republic of Djibouti to the AU and Chairperson of the PSC for December 2024, the briefing by H.E. Ambassador Bankole Adeoye, the AU Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security, and the statement by H.E. Ambassador Inonge Mbikusita-Lewanika, Chairperson of the African Peer Review Panel of Eminent Persons on behalf of H.E. Ambassador Marie-Antoinette Rose Quatre, the Chief Executive Officer of the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) Continental Secretariat;

Reaffirming the AU’s commitment to respect the sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of its Member States and the Union’s commitment to provide support to Member States in their conflict prevention efforts in accordance with the CSCPF and its two tools, the Country Structural Vulnerability and Resilience Assessment (CSVRA) and Country Structural Vulnerability Mitigation Strategies (CSVMS); and

Acting under Article 7 of its Protocol, the Peace and Security Council:

1. Acknowledges the significant contribution of the Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) in enhancing the African Union’s capacity to anticipate, prevent, and respond to conflicts across the continent and underscores the necessity of a robust and fully operational CEWS to effectively anticipate and address conflicts;

2. Commends the efforts of the AU and its Member States in addressing the continent's peace and security challenges; notes with appreciation the collaboration between the AU and the Regional Economic Communities and Regional Mechanisms (RECs/RMs) and other stakeholders in supporting conflict prevention efforts and underscores the need to further strengthen this partnership to ensure greater synergy, information sharing, and coordinated efforts in early warning, conflict prevention, and response initiatives;

3. Expresses concern about the persistent culture of denialism by some AU Member States regarding credible early warning reports of looming crises or potential conflicts; in this regard, underscores the importance of addressing the structural and proximate causes of conflict in Africa and reaffirms the effectiveness of the CSCPF and the APRM through the country review processes, as strategic early warning frameworks to identify and address these causes, as a diagnostic tool to identify drivers of change and socio-economic development, thereby contributing to the elimination of violent conflicts and the realization of the Silencing the Guns agenda;

4. Underscores the need for CEWS visibility and prominence in the PAPS new proposed structure to continue to assist Member States in advancing early warning and conflict prevention, in line with Article 12 of the Protocol Relating to the Establishment of the Peace and Security Council, to consolidate peace and stability across the Continent; encourages AU Member States and RECs/RMs to reaffirm their commitment to a collective approach to strengthening and fully implementing CEWS, with the necessary technical, human, and financial resources to effectively fulfil its conflict prevention mandate;

5. Encourages Member States to prioritize capacity-building initiatives, including the enhancement of national early warning systems to ensure timely and effective responses to emerging threats, and capacity building for analysts at national and regional levels; and emphasizes the need for aligning early warning systems across the AU and RECs/RMs, and calls for regular technical meetings and the establishment of clear modalities to foster cooperation and complementarity;

6. Also encourages Member States to prepare context-specific National Plans, aligned with national and regional plans, aimed at addressing structural drivers of conflict; underscores the need to collaborate with civil society through the African Union Network of Think Tanks for Peace (NeTT4Peace) in identifying early signs and threats to peace and stability in order to guarantee the effective use of early warning;

7. Highlights the need to reinforce the role of the African Union Inter-Regional Knowledge Exchange (I-RECKE) as an intra-continental platform for coordination and collaboration among the AU Commission, RECs/RMs, and other stakeholders including the Network of Think Tanks for Peace (NeTT4Peace), fostering enhanced interaction, communication, and joint programming approaches to support the mandates of AU and regional mechanisms in early warning and conflict prevention;

8. Commends the four (4) Member States that have acceded to the CSVRA/CSVMS processes, namely: The Republic of Ghana, the Republic of Côte d’Ivoire, the Republic of Zambia, and the Republic of Malawi, for their efforts to identify and enhance resilience factors, address their structural vulnerability to conflict, and develop targeted recommendations to mitigate risks and strengthen stability;

9. Further commends the AU Commission, in collaboration with the relevant RECs/RMs and APRM, for extending the requisite technical, financial and logistical support to the four (4) Member States in the convening of the national, regional, zonal, provincial consultations with relevant stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities, enhance resilience and develop mitigation strategies;

10. Expresses concernover the limited accession of Member States to the CSCPF tools – CSVRA and CSVMS, nine (9) years after adoption; acknowledges the collaborative efforts, including partnerships with RECs such as the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), which have facilitated multi-stakeholder consultations and aligned assessments with national priorities; and notes that additional countries have expressed interest in volunteering for self-assessment and the ongoing efforts for implementation;

11. Requests the Commission in partnership with the APRM to take the necessary measures, in accordance with the rules and procedures of each organ and in compliance with their respective mandates, to establish a harmonized framework for the CSVRA and the CSVMS, including integration of CSVRA/CSVM into the APRM Questionare for the improvement of governance in Africa, by adopting coordinated and multi-sectoral approaches aimed at promoting the peace, security and development nexus on the continent; and rrges the AU Commission to submit the draft harmonised framework to the PSC for approval;

12. Emphasizes the need to foster coordinated and holistic support to Member States and in this respect, endorses the AU Commission’s proposal to integrate CSCPF indicators into the methodology of the APRM and RECs/RMs to ensure complementarity of efforts; to this end, requests the AU Commission to submit a detailed draft report on these indicators to the PSC for endorsement;

13. Underlines the urgent need for sustainable funding to bolster early warning initiatives and calls on Member States to consider committing resources to develop and enhance National Infrastructures for Peace (I4P), including national early warning systems;

14. Requests the AU Commission to expeditiously undertake the following:

i. Undertake a comprehensive review of the CEWS, CSVRA and CSVMS with a view to reengineering the tools to effectively respond to the threats to peace and security and proposing appropriate interventions;

ii. Establish a comprehensive coordination mechanism, in collaboration with RECs/RMs and the APRM, aimed at optimizing resource utilization, strengthening synergy, and effectively integrating national, regional, and continental early warning systems, and submit the proposed coordination mechanism for its consideration by June 2025;

iii. Develop and implement concrete awareness-raising campaigns and actions to popularize the CSCPF and the two tools – CSVRA and CSVMS, as well as capacity building programmes, working closely with the APRM and RECs/RMs to ensure Member States are sensitized on the benefits of the tools. In this respect, further, extend unflinching support to Member States as part of concerted and collaborative efforts to address structural issues;

iv. Establish a robust monitoring and evaluation mechanism for the implementation of an early warning mechanism through existing tools;

v. Create an African platform for south-south cooperation for sharing best practices and experiences on early warning systems and the use of advanced technology in this regard;

vi. Mobilise sustainable funding, including through the Peace Fund, to support CSVRA/CSVMS processes, ensuring adequate resources to support Member States for stakeholder engagement and the effective implementation of identified mitigation strategies;

vii. Provide half-yearly reports on the implementation of the CSVRA and CSVMS to the Council; and regular updates to the PSC on the progress made in the implementation of these decisions;

15. Reiterates its request to the AU Commission to elaborate a trigger mechanism and indicators to facilitate the role of the Council in responding to early warning information on potential and looming crises or conflicts; and

16. Decides to remain actively seized of the matter.

COMMENTS